Deglobalisation 2025: The New Economic Order and Investment Opportunities

Q: What is deglobalisation in 2025 and why is it happening?

Deglobalisation in 2025 is the process of slowing down and partially reversing the global economic integration that had characterised the decades from 1990 to 2016. It is not a complete reversal of globalisation but a profound transformation: global supply chains are shortening and regionalising, trade flows are fragmenting into geopolitical blocs (West vs China/Russia), and foreign direct investment is concentrating on allied countries rather than those with the lowest production costs. Therefore, deglobalisation 2025 is driven by four structural factors: (1) US-China trade war and economic sanctions that make integrated supply chains risky; (2) COVID-19 pandemic that revealed the fragility of single-source supply chains; (3) Russian invasion of Ukraine that accelerated energy fragmentation; (4) National industrial policies such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act that incentivise domestic production.

Q: What do reshoring, onshoring and nearshoring mean in 2025?

In the deglobalisation 2025 context, reshoring, onshoring and nearshoring indicate different production relocation strategies: (1) Onshoring (or reshoring) means bringing production back to the country of origin — for example, an American company moving semiconductor production from China to the US thanks to CHIPS Act incentives; (2) Nearshoring means moving production to geographically close countries with lower costs but fewer geopolitical risks — for example, the US moving production to Mexico instead of China; (3) Friendshoring means moving production to countries with favourable geopolitical alignment — for example, Europe preferring Indian or Vietnamese suppliers to Chinese ones. Therefore, in deglobalisation 2025, the movement is not towards pure domestic production but towards building regional and geopolitically secure supply chains.

Q: Does deglobalisation 2025 structurally increase inflation?

Yes, deglobalisation 2025 is structurally inflationary for several fundamental economic reasons: (1) The globalisation of the last 30 years had depressed prices through production in low-cost countries (China above all): reshoring increases production costs by 15-40% compared to Asian production; (2) Fragmentation into trade blocs reduces global competition, allowing producers to maintain higher prices; (3) Building up strategic stockpiles (chips, critical materials, medicines) reduces economic efficiency but increases resilience; (4) Investments in productive redundancy cost more than a globally optimised chain. Therefore, many economists estimate that deglobalisation 2025 could add 0.5-1.5 percentage points of structural inflation in the long term compared to a full globalisation scenario.

Q: Which sectors benefit from deglobalisation 2025?

The sectors that benefit most from deglobalisation in 2025 are: (1) Local semiconductor production — TSMC is building fabs in the US and Japan thanks to the CHIPS Act; Intel reactivates facilities in Europe; Intel, Samsung, Micron receive billion-dollar subsidies; (2) Domestic renewable energy — the US Inflation Reduction Act has unleashed $369 billion of investment in domestic production of solar panels, batteries and wind turbines; (3) Infrastructure and construction — every new production plant requires local infrastructure: factories, electricity grids, logistics; (4) Defence — increased geopolitical tensions have led almost all NATO countries to increase military spending to 2% of GDP; (5) Nearshoring beneficiary countries: Vietnam, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Poland attracting productive investments relocated from China. Therefore, deglobalisation 2025 creates very concrete and structural thematic investment opportunities.

Q: How to invest in deglobalisation 2025 with ETFs?

To invest in deglobalisation in 2025 via ETFs several concrete strategies exist: (1) US reshoring ETFs — iShares US Infrastructure ETF (IFRA), Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) for construction and infrastructure linked to new production plants; (2) Semiconductor ETFs — VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) with exposure to TSMC, ASML, Intel and producers building capacity outside China; (3) Defence ETFs — iShares MSCI Europe Aerospace & Defence (DFNS), Global X Defense Tech (SHLD); (4) Beneficiary market ETFs: India (INDY), Vietnam (VNM), Indonesia (EIDO), Poland (EPOL), Mexico (EWW); (5) US/Europe domestic renewable energy ETFs — Invesco Solar (TAN), First Trust Wind Energy (FAN). Therefore, building a small thematic allocation of 10-15% of the portfolio on these ETFs allows capturing the structural deglobalisation 2025 trend while keeping the portfolio core in traditional global ETFs.

deglobalisation 2025 investment – reshoring onshoring nearshoring regional supply chains thematic ETFs semiconductors defence renewables new economic order

Deglobalisation in 2025 is the most important structural mega-trend of the 2020s: after three decades of increasingly deep global economic integration, the world is fragmenting into regional trade blocs, supply chains are shortening, production reshoring is accelerating, and international trade as a percentage of global GDP is declining for the first time since the Second World War. For any investor, deglobalisation 2025 is not merely a geopolitical phenomenon to observe: it creates concrete and structural investment opportunities in sectors such as semiconductors, infrastructure, defence, renewable energy and nearshoring beneficiary countries. Therefore, understanding where capital will concentrate in the new economic order is the most valuable skill for building a portfolio resilient to the next 10–15 years. According to the IMF — World Economic Outlook 2025, trade fragmentation could cost up to 7% of global GDP in the long run — but will also create enormous local winners. This guide includes the ReshoreIndex simulator showing direct investment flows in reshoring by sector, the map of emerging trade blocs in 2025, the winning sectors and countries, and the 5-step strategy to invest in this mega-trend. For the full picture of the conflicts driving this process, also read the guides on trade wars and tariffs 2025, economic sanctions 2025 and the US-China trade war.

ReshoreIndex Reshoring Flows · 2025

Deglobalisation 2025 — Key Investments

CHIPS Act + IRA: $769bn

US manufacturing reshoring 2022–2025

CHIPS Act (US semi)

$452bn

IRA (US renewables)

$369bn

Vietnam export +US

+340%

India FDI growth

+28%/yr

Semiconductors (reshoring)

Strong

Renewables (IRA boost)

Strong

Defence (NATO spend)

Rising

Global trade/GDP

61%→54%

📉 World trade/GDP share declining since 2008 · signal of structural deglobalisation

The 4 structural drivers of deglobalisation 2025

First of all, to invest correctly in deglobalisation in 2025 it is essential to distinguish cyclical drivers (which could reverse) from structural ones (which will transform the global economy over the next 10–20 years). The four structural drivers that make deglobalisation 2025 a durable trend are the following.

Driver	Triggering event	Structural effect	Reversibility	Investment impact
US-China trade war	2018 tariffs, CHIPS Act 2022, tech sanctions	Technology decoupling, semiconductor reshoring	Low (10–20 years)	TSMC, ASML, US fabs
COVID-19 — single-source fragility	2020 pandemic, chip and drug shortages	Supplier diversification, strategic stockpiles	Very low (permanent)	Nearshoring, redundant logistics
Russia-Ukraine invasion	February 2022, Europe energy crisis	Energy fragmentation, accelerated renewables	Low (5–10 years)	Renewables, LNG, defence
National industrial policies	IRA $369bn, CHIPS Act $52bn, EU Green Deal	Subsidised domestic production vs imports	Medium (policy-dependent)	Local manufacturing, infrastructure

⚠️ Deglobalisation 2025 vs total de-globalisation: a fundamental distinction It is important not to confuse deglobalisation in 2025 with a return to autarky or 19th-century mercantilism. International trade is not disappearing — it is transforming. In fact, global exports in absolute value continue to grow. What is changing is the structure of value chains: from global and optimised for minimum cost to regional and optimised for geopolitical resilience. Therefore, the impact for investors is not the end of international trade but the redesign of who produces what and where — with clearly identifiable winners and losers.

Emerging trade blocs in deglobalisation 2025

🌐

Western Bloc

Core countriesUS, EU, Japan, Australia

Combined GDP~55% global

TrendReshoring, CHIPS Act, IRA

InvestabilityHigh, stable

ETFsMSCI World, S&P 500, EURO STOXX

🔒

Alternative Bloc

Core countriesChina, Russia, Iran, Belarus

Combined GDP~20% global

TrendDe-dollarisation, BRICS+

InvestabilityLow–very low (sanctions risk)

ETFsAvoid / use EM ex-China

🌍

Non-Aligned / Nearshoring Countries

Key countriesIndia, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia

Combined GDP~25% global (rising)

TrendAttracting FDI from global reshoring

InvestabilityHigh with selection

ETFsINDY, VNM, EWW, EIDO

Winning sectors of deglobalisation 2025: where to focus investments

Sector	Deglobalisation driver	Public investment	Main thematic ETFs	Time horizon
Local semiconductors	US CHIPS Act, EU Chips Act, China tech sanctions	$52bn public US + EU €43bn	SMH, SOXX	5–15 years
Domestic renewable energy	IRA US $369bn, EU Green Deal	$369bn IRA + €300bn EU	TAN (solar), FAN (wind), ICLN	10–20 years
Infrastructure & construction	New reshoring production plants	Bipartisan Infrastructure Law $1.2tr	PAVE, IFRA, TOLL	5–10 years
Defence & aerospace	NATO 2% GDP target, global tensions	+$200bn/yr NATO spending 2022–25	DFNS, ITA, SHLD, XAR	3–10 years
Batteries & energy storage	IRA + EV transition + intermittent renewables	IRA subsidies for US gigafactories	LIT (lithium), BATT, DRIV	5–15 years
Logistics & automation	Shorter but costlier chains → automation	Private (Amazon, FedEx, DHL)	ROBO, BOTZ, THNQ	5–10 years

💡 The CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act: the largest reshoring programmes in history In deglobalisation 2025, the US CHIPS and Science Act (August 2022) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) represent the most ambitious domestic reindustrialisation programmes ever launched by a Western democracy. The CHIPS Act mobilised over $450 billion in private and public investments to build semiconductor factories on American soil: TSMC is building two fabs in Arizona, Intel one in Ohio, Samsung one in Texas. The IRA unleashed over $369 billion in subsidies for solar panels, batteries, wind turbines and electric vehicles produced in the US. Therefore, these two pieces of legislation alone are redrawing the industrial map of the American economy and creating measurable investment opportunities for the next 10–15 years.

How to invest in deglobalisation 2025: 5-step strategy

First of all, understand that deglobalisation 2025 is structural and long-term — unlike short-term market volatility, deglobalisation in 2025 is a decade-long trend driven by political, technological and geopolitical factors that do not reverse in a few months. Therefore, thematic investments on this trend require a 5–15 year time horizon, not a speculative one. Consider allocating 10–15% of the portfolio to deglobalisation thematic ETFs as a satellite component alongside the core of diversified global ETFs such as MSCI World. For your long-term plan also read the guide on supplementary pension.
Subsequently, build thematic exposure to the winning sectors of deglobalisation — the sectors that benefit structurally from deglobalisation 2025 are: local semiconductor production (SMH, SOXX ETFs with TSMC and ASML), domestic renewable energy (TAN for solar, FAN for wind), US/EU infrastructure and construction (PAVE, IFRA ETFs), defence and aerospace (DFNS, ITA ETFs). Consequently, even a small 2–3% allocation to each of these sectors creates diversified exposure to the mega-trend. To deepen ETF selection read the guide on investing in ETFs.
Then, increase geographic exposure to nearshoring beneficiaries — India, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia and Poland are attracting enormous foreign direct investment flows relocated from China: they are the most direct beneficiaries of deglobalisation 2025. ETFs such as INDY (India), VNM (Vietnam), EWW (Mexico) and EIDO (Indonesia) offer direct exposure to these high-growth markets. Consider a 5–8% portfolio allocation in these ETFs, partially replacing the China weight of traditional MSCI EM ETFs. Consequently, you maintain exposure to emerging market growth while reducing specific Chinese geopolitical risk.
Subsequently, protect the portfolio from structural deglobalisation inflation — deglobalisation 2025 is structurally inflationary (+0.5–1.5% CPI in the long term) because local production costs more than in low-wage countries. Therefore, increase inflation protection in the portfolio: physical gold (ETC PHAU, SGLD) as permanent coverage, inflation-linked bonds such as US TIPS or Italian BTPi that maintain real purchasing power. A 10–15% allocation to these assets protects against the main negative macroeconomic effect of deglobalisation 2025. Also read the guide on inflation 2026 and protecting savings.
Finally, monitor key indicators and rebalance the portfolio annually — the indicators to watch for assessing deglobalisation 2025 progress are: the share of world trade in global GDP (declining signals trend acceleration), foreign direct investment flows to nearshoring countries (growing is an opportunity), and new production facility announcements in semiconductors, batteries and renewables. Therefore, an annual portfolio rebalance adapting the weight of thematic ETFs to the trend evolution is more effective than continuous tactical changes. For savings discipline also maintain your automatic savings plan.

deglobalisation 2025 portfolio thematic investments – semiconductor ETFs renewables defence infrastructure nearshoring India Vietnam gold inflation protection

Frequently asked questions about deglobalisation 2025 and investments

What is deglobalisation in 2025 and why is it happening?

Deglobalisation in 2025 is the process of transforming global supply chains from cost-minimisation optimised to regional and geopolitically secure. It is driven by four structural factors: US-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic revealing single-source fragility, Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerating energy fragmentation, and new industrial policies like the CHIPS Act and US IRA. Therefore, deglobalisation 2025 is not a temporary cycle but a decade-long structural transformation.

What do reshoring, onshoring and nearshoring mean in 2025?

In the deglobalisation 2025 context: onshoring (or reshoring) means bringing production back to the country of origin (e.g. US semiconductors thanks to the CHIPS Act); nearshoring means moving production to geographically close countries (e.g. Mexico for the US); friendshoring means moving to geopolitically aligned countries (e.g. India or Vietnam instead of China). Therefore, in deglobalisation 2025 the movement is not towards pure domestic production but towards regional and secure supply chains.

Does deglobalisation 2025 structurally increase inflation?

Yes, deglobalisation in 2025 is structurally inflationary: local production costs 15–40% more than Asian production, fragmentation reduces global competition and investments in productive redundancy reduce efficiency. Therefore, economists estimate +0.5–1.5% structural inflation in the long term compared to a full globalisation scenario, making gold and inflation-linked bonds essential defensive components.

Which sectors benefit from deglobalisation 2025?

The sectors that benefit most from deglobalisation 2025 are: local semiconductor production (US CHIPS Act + EU Chips Act), domestic renewable energy (IRA $369bn), infrastructure and construction, defence (growing NATO spending), batteries and energy storage, logistics and automation. Therefore, thematic ETFs on these sectors offer direct exposure to the mega-trend with a 5–15 year time horizon.

How to invest in deglobalisation 2025 with ETFs?

To invest in deglobalisation in 2025 via ETFs: SMH/SOXX for semiconductors, TAN/FAN for renewables, PAVE/IFRA for infrastructure, DFNS/ITA for defence, INDY/VNM/EWW for nearshoring countries. Therefore, a satellite component of 10–15% of the portfolio on these thematic ETFs, combined with gold and inflation-linked bonds as macro protection, is the optimal strategy for capturing this structural mega-trend.

Deepen your strategy: trade wars and tariffs 2025, economic sanctions 2025, US-China trade war, invest in ETFs, supplementary pension and automatic savings 2026.